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Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Ascoli U19
Ascoli U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
9/20/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 2Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ascoli U1949%
×Draw23%
Spezia U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli U19
1.79
Spezia U19
1.31

Ascoli U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ascoli U19
2.00
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Ascoli U19
1.25
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw
72%
Ascoli U19 or Spezia U19
77%
Draw or Spezia U19
51%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+
27%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals
83%
Ascoli U19 2+ goals
53%
Ascoli U19 3+ goals
26%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
73%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
38%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 2.00 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more
49%
level
23%
Spezia U19 scores more
28%

Ascoli U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19

Spezia U19 beat Ascoli U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli in Ascoli Piceno.