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Ascoli U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Ascoli U19
Ascoli U19
FT
0 – 1
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
4/23/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20Stadio Nuovo Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ascoli U1932%
×Draw24%
SPAL U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli U19
1.40
SPAL U19
1.67

SPAL U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ascoli U19
0.80
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Ascoli U19
2.13
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw
56%
Ascoli U19 or SPAL U19
76%
Draw or SPAL U19
68%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+
15%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals
75%
Ascoli U19 2+ goals
41%
Ascoli U19 3+ goals
17%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
81%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
50%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)
42%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 0.80 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Ascoli U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more
32%
level
24%
SPAL U19 scores more
44%

SPAL U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SPAL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ascoli U19 vs SPAL U19

SPAL U19 beat Ascoli U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Nuovo Comunale in Sant’Egidio alla Vibrata.