Ascoli U19 3–2 Perugia U19: Result & Stats

Ascoli U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Perugia U19

4/19/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 27Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ascoli U1954%

×Draw22%

Perugia U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ascoli U19Expected goals in this matchPerugia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.21

Ascoli U19

1.94

Perugia U19

1.21

Ascoli U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 73 away

2.00

creates per match

1.18

1.25

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ascoli U19

2.00

Perugia U19

1.18

allows per match

Ascoli U19

1.25

Perugia U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw

76%

Ascoli U19 or Perugia U19

78%

Draw or Perugia U19

46%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+

31%

Perugia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals

86%

Ascoli U19 2+ goals

58%

Ascoli U19 3+ goals

30%

Perugia U19 1+ goals

70%

Perugia U19 2+ goals

34%

Perugia U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Perugia U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 2.00 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more

54%

level

22%

Perugia U19 scores more

24%

Ascoli U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff