Ascoli U19 1–0 Palermo U19: Result & Stats

Ascoli U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Palermo U19

9/27/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 3Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ascoli U1950%

×Draw23%

Palermo U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ascoli U19Expected goals in this matchPalermo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.23

Ascoli U19

1.78

Palermo U19

1.23

Ascoli U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

1.22

1.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ascoli U19

2.00

Palermo U19

1.22

allows per match

Ascoli U19

1.25

Palermo U19

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Palermo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

Palermo U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw

74%

Ascoli U19 or Palermo U19

77%

Draw or Palermo U19

50%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+

28%

Palermo U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals

83%

Ascoli U19 2+ goals

53%

Ascoli U19 3+ goals

26%

Palermo U19 1+ goals

71%

Palermo U19 2+ goals

35%

Palermo U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Palermo U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

Palermo U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 2.00 + Palermo U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Palermo U19 attack 1.22 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more

50%

level

23%

Palermo U19 scores more

26%

Ascoli U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff