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Ascoli U19 vs Crotone U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Ascoli U19
Ascoli U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Crotone U19
Crotone U19
11/25/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 9Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ascoli U1959%
×Draw20%
Crotone U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli U19
2.17
Crotone U19
1.19

Ascoli U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 85 away

creates per match

Ascoli U19
2.00
Crotone U19
1.14

allows per match

Ascoli U19
1.25
Crotone U19
2.34

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par
Crotone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

Crotone U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw
80%
Ascoli U19 or Crotone U19
80%
Draw or Crotone U19
41%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+
37%
Crotone U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals
89%
Ascoli U19 2+ goals
64%
Ascoli U19 3+ goals
36%
Crotone U19 1+ goals
70%
Crotone U19 2+ goals
33%
Crotone U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Crotone U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

Crotone U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 2.00 + Crotone U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.17

Crotone U19 attack 1.14 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more
59%
level
20%
Crotone U19 scores more
20%

Ascoli U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Ascoli U19 3–1 Crotone U19

Ascoli U19 beat Crotone U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli in Ascoli Piceno.