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Ascó vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Ascó
Ascó
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
10/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadio Municipal d'Ascó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ascó29%
×Draw29%
Vilassar Mar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascó
0.97
Vilassar Mar
1.24

Vilassar Mar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ascó
0.75
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Ascó
1.56
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Ascó+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascó ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ascó or draw
58%
Ascó or Vilassar Mar
71%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
71%

Winning margin

Ascó wins by 2+
10%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ascó 1+ goals
62%
Ascó 2+ goals
25%
Ascó 3+ goals
7%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
71%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
35%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ascó (draw refunded)
41%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascó at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascó attack 0.75 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Ascó defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ascó scores more
29%
level
29%
Vilassar Mar scores more
42%

Vilassar Mar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ascó vs Vilassar Mar

Ascó and Vilassar Mar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal d'Ascó in Ascó.