Ascó 1–0 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Ascó

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranca

Marcel Meseguer 68'

3/19/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Estadio Municipal d'Ascó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ascó33%

×Draw27%

Vilafranca41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscóExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.34

Ascó

1.17

Vilafranca

1.34

Vilafranca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 74 away

0.75

creates per match

1.12

1.56

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ascó

0.75

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Ascó

1.56

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascó+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascó ↓

Vilafranca →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ascó or draw

59%

Ascó or Vilafranca

73%

Draw or Vilafranca

67%

Winning margin

Ascó wins by 2+

13%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ascó 1+ goals

69%

Ascó 2+ goals

33%

Ascó 3+ goals

11%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

74%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

39%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ascó (draw refunded)

44%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ascó at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ascó attack 0.75 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Ascó defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ascó scores more

33%

level

27%

Vilafranca scores more

41%

Vilafranca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Ion Perelló← Adrián Espinar

62'

62'

62'

68'

75'

B. Ganiyu← Ramón Sardà

75'

Joan Benet← Abel Cortina

82'

Sergio Caliz← Marcel Meseguer

86'

Xavi Arjona← Víctor Oribe

Ascó

Vilafranca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Meseguer

▼

Espinar

▼

Sardà

Manager: German Inglés

46'▲Ion Perelló←▼Adrián Espinar

62'▲E. Jerez←▼M. Rosales

62'▲Ferrán←▼Aleix Cuenca

75'▲B. Ganiyu←▼Ramón Sardà

82'▲Sergio Caliz←▼Marcel Meseguer

Ascó substitutes

PerellóJerezFerránGaniyuCaliz

Manager: Iván Moreno

62'▲Romo←▼Álex Segura

75'▲Joan Benet←▼Abel Cortina

86'▲Xavi Arjona←▼Víctor Oribe

Vilafranca substitutes

RomoBenetArjona

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Ascó 1–0 Vilafranca

Ascó beat Vilafranca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 19, 2022.

Goals: Marcel Meseguer (68').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal d'Ascó in Ascó.

Ascó vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Ascó 1–0 Vilafranca