Ascó 0–3 Sant Andreu: Result & Stats

Ascó

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sant Andreu

10/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Estadio Municipal d'Ascó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ascó24%

×Draw26%

Sant Andreu50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscóExpected goals in this matchSant Andreu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.52

Ascó

0.95

Sant Andreu

1.52

Sant Andreu creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 57 away

0.75

creates per match

1.47

1.56

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Ascó

0.75

Sant Andreu

1.47

allows per match

Ascó

1.56

Sant Andreu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascó+0.00on par

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascó ↓

Sant Andreu →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ascó or draw

50%

Ascó or Sant Andreu

74%

Draw or Sant Andreu

76%

Winning margin

Ascó wins by 2+

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Ascó 1+ goals

61%

Ascó 2+ goals

25%

Ascó 3+ goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

78%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

45%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ascó (draw refunded)

32%

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ascó at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ascó attack 0.75 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Ascó defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ascó scores more

24%

level

26%

Sant Andreu scores more

50%

Sant Andreu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff