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Ascó vs Grama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Ascó
Ascó
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Grama
Grama
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Estadio Municipal d'Ascó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ascó30%
×Draw26%
Grama44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascó
1.14
Grama
1.45

Grama creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ascó
0.75
Grama
1.34

allows per match

Ascó
1.56
Grama
1.52

finishing

Ascó+0.00on par
Grama+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascó ↓

Grama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ascó or draw
56%
Ascó or Grama
74%
Draw or Grama
70%

Winning margin

Ascó wins by 2+
12%
Grama wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ascó 1+ goals
68%
Ascó 2+ goals
32%
Ascó 3+ goals
11%
Grama 1+ goals
77%
Grama 2+ goals
42%
Grama 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ascó (draw refunded)
40%
Grama (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascó at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Grama away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascó attack 0.75 + Grama defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.14

Grama attack 1.34 + Ascó defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ascó scores more
30%
level
26%
Grama scores more
44%

Grama at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Ascó 2–4 Grama

Grama beat Ascó 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal d'Ascó in Ascó.