Ascó 0–3 Figueres: Result & Stats

Ascó

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Figueres

11/20/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Municipal d'Ascó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ascó28%

×Draw26%

Figueres46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscóExpected goals in this matchFigueres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.44

Ascó

1.07

Figueres

1.44

Figueres creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

0.75

creates per match

1.31

1.56

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ascó

0.75

Figueres

1.31

allows per match

Ascó

1.56

Figueres

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascó+0.00on par

Figueres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascó ↓

Figueres →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ascó or draw

54%

Ascó or Figueres

74%

Draw or Figueres

72%

Winning margin

Ascó wins by 2+

11%

Figueres wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ascó 1+ goals

66%

Ascó 2+ goals

29%

Ascó 3+ goals

Figueres 1+ goals

76%

Figueres 2+ goals

42%

Figueres 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ascó (draw refunded)

38%

Figueres (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ascó at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Figueres away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ascó attack 0.75 + Figueres defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Figueres attack 1.31 + Ascó defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ascó scores more

28%

level

26%

Figueres scores more

46%

Figueres at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff