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Ascó vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Ascó
Ascó
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Castelldefels
Castelldefels
11/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio Municipal d'Ascó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ascó28%
×Draw28%
Castelldefels44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascó
0.99
Castelldefels
1.31

Castelldefels creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ascó
0.75
Castelldefels
1.07

allows per match

Ascó
1.56
Castelldefels
1.24

finishing

Ascó+0.00on par
Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascó ↓

Castelldefels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascó or draw
56%
Ascó or Castelldefels
72%
Draw or Castelldefels
72%

Winning margin

Ascó wins by 2+
10%
Castelldefels wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ascó 1+ goals
63%
Ascó 2+ goals
26%
Ascó 3+ goals
8%
Castelldefels 1+ goals
73%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
38%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ascó (draw refunded)
39%
Castelldefels (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascó at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascó attack 0.75 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Ascó defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ascó scores more
28%
level
28%
Castelldefels scores more
44%

Castelldefels at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Ascó 1–3 Castelldefels

Castelldefels beat Ascó 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal d'Ascó in Ascó.