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Aschat vs Olympic Azzaweya — Premier League 2019

Aschat
Aschat
FT
0 – 2
Olympic Azzaweya
Olympic Azzaweya
2/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aschat26%
×Draw32%
Olympic Azzaweya42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aschat
0.76
Olympic Azzaweya
1.06

Olympic Azzaweya creates 39% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 65 away

creates per match

Aschat
0.35
Olympic Azzaweya
1.03

allows per match

Aschat
1.10
Olympic Azzaweya
1.17

finishing

Aschat+0.00on par
Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aschat ↓

Olympic Azzaweya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aschat or draw
58%
Aschat or Olympic Azzaweya
68%
Draw or Olympic Azzaweya
74%

Winning margin

Aschat wins by 2+
8%
Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aschat 1+ goals
53%
Aschat 2+ goals
18%
Aschat 3+ goals
4%
Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals
65%
Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals
29%
Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aschat (draw refunded)
38%
Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aschat at home — creates 0.35, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Olympic Azzaweya away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aschat attack 0.35 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.76

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.03 + Aschat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aschat scores more
26%
level
32%
Olympic Azzaweya scores more
42%

Olympic Azzaweya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympic Azzaweya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aschat 0–2 Olympic Azzaweya

Olympic Azzaweya beat Aschat 2-0 in Premier League on February 23, 2021.