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Aschat vs Almahalla — Premier League 2019

Aschat
Aschat
FT
0 – 1
Almahalla
Almahalla
7/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aschat25%
×Draw34%
Almahalla42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aschat
0.69
Almahalla
0.99

Almahalla creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

creates per match

Aschat
0.35
Almahalla
0.87

allows per match

Aschat
1.10
Almahalla
1.03

finishing

Aschat+0.00on par
Almahalla+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aschat ↓

Almahalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aschat or draw
58%
Aschat or Almahalla
66%
Draw or Almahalla
75%

Winning margin

Aschat wins by 2+
7%
Almahalla wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aschat 1+ goals
50%
Aschat 2+ goals
15%
Aschat 3+ goals
3%
Almahalla 1+ goals
63%
Almahalla 2+ goals
26%
Almahalla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aschat (draw refunded)
37%
Almahalla (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aschat at home — creates 0.35, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Almahalla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aschat attack 0.35 + Almahalla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.69

Almahalla attack 0.87 + Aschat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aschat scores more
25%
level
34%
Almahalla scores more
42%

Almahalla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almahalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aschat 0–1 Almahalla

Almahalla beat Aschat 1-0 in Premier League on July 12, 2021.