Aschat 0–1 Al-Madina: Result & Stats

Aschat

FT

0 – 1

Al-Madina

11/29/2021

Premier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aschat30%

×Draw32%

Al-Madina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AschatExpected goals in this matchAl-Madina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

0.98

Aschat

0.85

Al-Madina

0.98

Al-Madina creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 64 away

0.35

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Aschat

0.35

Al-Madina

0.86

allows per match

Aschat

1.10

Al-Madina

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aschat+0.00on par

Al-Madina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aschat ↓

Al-Madina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aschat or draw

63%

Aschat or Al-Madina

68%

Draw or Al-Madina

70%

Winning margin

Aschat wins by 2+

10%

Al-Madina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Aschat 1+ goals

57%

Aschat 2+ goals

21%

Aschat 3+ goals

5%

Al-Madina 1+ goals

62%

Al-Madina 2+ goals

26%

Al-Madina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aschat (draw refunded)

45%

Al-Madina (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aschat at home — creates 0.35, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Al-Madina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aschat attack 0.35 + Al-Madina defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.85

Al-Madina attack 0.86 + Aschat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aschat scores more

30%

level

32%

Al-Madina scores more

37%

Al-Madina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Madina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff