Aschat 0–0 Abu Salim: Result & Stats

Aschat

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Abu Salim

12/16/2021

Premier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aschat26%

×Draw34%

Abu Salim40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AschatExpected goals in this matchAbu Salim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

0.96

Aschat

0.71

Abu Salim

0.96

Abu Salim creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 61 away

0.35

creates per match

0.82

1.10

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Aschat

0.35

Abu Salim

0.82

allows per match

Aschat

1.10

Abu Salim

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aschat+0.00on par

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aschat ↓

Abu Salim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Aschat or draw

60%

Aschat or Abu Salim

66%

Draw or Abu Salim

74%

Winning margin

Aschat wins by 2+

8%

Abu Salim wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aschat 1+ goals

51%

Aschat 2+ goals

16%

Aschat 3+ goals

4%

Abu Salim 1+ goals

62%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

25%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Aschat (draw refunded)

39%

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aschat at home — creates 0.35, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aschat attack 0.35 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.71

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Aschat defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aschat scores more

26%

level

34%

Abu Salim scores more

40%

Abu Salim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff