ASC Kara 0–0 Vita Club: Result & Stats

ASC Kara

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vita Club

9/15/2019

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade de Kégué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ASC Kara43%

×Draw37%

Vita Club20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASC KaraExpected goals in this matchVita Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.50

ASC Kara

0.90

Vita Club

0.50

ASC Kara creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

0.67

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

ASC Kara

0.67

Vita Club

0.67

allows per match

ASC Kara

0.33

Vita Club

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASC Kara+0.00on par

Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Kara ↓

Vita Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–112%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

ASC Kara or draw

80%

ASC Kara or Vita Club

63%

Draw or Vita Club

57%

Winning margin

ASC Kara wins by 2+

16%

Vita Club wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ASC Kara 1+ goals

59%

ASC Kara 2+ goals

23%

ASC Kara 3+ goals

6%

Vita Club 1+ goals

39%

Vita Club 2+ goals

9%

Vita Club 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

ASC Kara (draw refunded)

69%

Vita Club (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Kara at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Vita Club away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Kara attack 0.67 + Vita Club defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Vita Club attack 0.67 + ASC Kara defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASC Kara scores more

43%

level

37%

Vita Club scores more

20%

ASC Kara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASC Kara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff