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ASC Dortmund vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
FT
2 – 3
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
8/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ASC Dortmund33%
×Draw22%
TSV Steinbach45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
1.58
TSV Steinbach
1.88

TSV Steinbach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
1.50
TSV Steinbach
2.00

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.75
TSV Steinbach
1.67

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
55%
ASC Dortmund or TSV Steinbach
78%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
67%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
16%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
79%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
47%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
21%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
85%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
56%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
42%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 1.50 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

TSV Steinbach attack 2.00 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
33%
level
22%
TSV Steinbach scores more
45%

TSV Steinbach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASC Dortmund vs TSV Steinbach

TSV Steinbach beat ASC Dortmund 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Waldstadion Aplerbeck in Dortmund.