ASC Dortmund vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 70+ matches
ASC Dortmund44%
SG Wattenscheid 0933%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
ASC Dortmund creates 17% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 70 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
ASC Dortmund ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches
SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.84
SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
ASC Dortmund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
FC Gutersloh
Holzwickeder SC
Westfalia Rhynern
SprockhovelASC Dortmund
Kaan-Marienborn
Meinerzhagen
VredenSG Wattenscheid 09
Sportfreunde Siegen
Preußen Münster II
Ennepetal
TuS Haltern
TuS Erndtebruck
Paderborn II
Schermbeck
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Eintracht Rheine
Victoria Clarholz
Westfalia Herne
Hammer SpVgIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
ASC Dortmund host SG Wattenscheid 09 on Friday, 14 February 2025 at 18:30. The match is part of the Oberliga - Westfalen 2020/2021 season.
Oberliga - Westfalen: ASC Dortmund 1–0 SG Wattenscheid 09
ASC Dortmund beat SG Wattenscheid 09 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 14, 2025.
The match was played at Sportplatz Schweizer Allee in Dortmund.