Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ASC Dortmund vs Meinerzhagen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
CANC
14:00
Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
2/7/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 19Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ASC Dortmund54%
×Draw21%
Meinerzhagen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
2.19
Meinerzhagen
1.46

ASC Dortmund creates 50% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
2.17
Meinerzhagen
1.55

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.38
Meinerzhagen
2.20

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Meinerzhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
75%
ASC Dortmund or Meinerzhagen
79%
Draw or Meinerzhagen
46%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
33%
Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
89%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
64%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
37%
Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
77%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
43%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
68%
Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
54%
level
21%
Meinerzhagen scores more
25%

ASC Dortmund at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASC Dortmund face Meinerzhagen (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with ASC Dortmund hosting Meinerzhagen. Match starts February 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ASC Dortmund host Meinerzhagen at Waldstadion Aplerbeck.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.