ASC Dortmund 3–2 Eintracht Rheine: Result & Stats

ASC Dortmund

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Rheine

3/29/2026

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 28Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

ASC Dortmund54%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Rheine25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASC DortmundExpected goals in this matchEintracht Rheine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.46

ASC Dortmund

2.20

Eintracht Rheine

1.46

ASC Dortmund creates 51% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

2.17

creates per match

1.54

1.38

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

ASC Dortmund

2.17

Eintracht Rheine

1.54

allows per match

ASC Dortmund

1.38

Eintracht Rheine

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Eintracht Rheine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw

75%

ASC Dortmund or Eintracht Rheine

79%

Draw or Eintracht Rheine

46%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+

33%

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals

89%

ASC Dortmund 2+ goals

64%

ASC Dortmund 3+ goals

37%

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals

77%

Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals

43%

Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)

68%

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.20

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more

54%

level

21%

Eintracht Rheine scores more

25%

ASC Dortmund at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff