ASC Dortmund 3–0 Delbrücker SC: Result & Stats

ASC Dortmund

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Delbrücker SC

5/6/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 31Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ASC Dortmund60%

×Draw19%

Delbrücker SC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASC DortmundExpected goals in this matchDelbrücker SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.40

ASC Dortmund

2.46

Delbrücker SC

1.40

ASC Dortmund creates 76% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 17 away

2.17

creates per match

1.41

1.38

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

ASC Dortmund

2.17

Delbrücker SC

1.41

allows per match

ASC Dortmund

1.38

Delbrücker SC

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Delbrücker SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw

79%

ASC Dortmund or Delbrücker SC

81%

Draw or Delbrücker SC

40%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+

39%

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals

91%

ASC Dortmund 2+ goals

70%

ASC Dortmund 3+ goals

44%

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

75%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

41%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)

74%

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.46

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more

60%

level

19%

Delbrücker SC scores more

21%

ASC Dortmund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff