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ASC Dortmund vs Borussia Dortmund II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund II
Borussia Dortmund II
B. Drakas 37'
7/9/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ASC Dortmund36%
×Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
1.53
Borussia Dortmund II
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
1.50
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.75
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
59%
ASC Dortmund or Borussia Dortmund II
77%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund II
64%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
17%
Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
78%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
45%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
20%
Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals
81%
Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals
49%
Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
46%
Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 1.50 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
36%
level
23%
Borussia Dortmund II scores more
41%

Borussia Dortmund II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
B. Drakas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASC Dortmund vs Borussia Dortmund II

Borussia Dortmund II beat ASC Dortmund 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2025.

Goals: B. Drakas (37').