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Asaria vs Almahalla — Premier League 2019

Asaria
Asaria
FT
1 – 1
Almahalla
Almahalla
11/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Asaria34%
×Draw31%
Almahalla35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asaria
0.96
Almahalla
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

creates per match

Asaria
0.89
Almahalla
0.87

allows per match

Asaria
1.11
Almahalla
1.03

finishing

Asaria+0.00on par
Almahalla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asaria ↓

Almahalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Asaria or draw
65%
Asaria or Almahalla
69%
Draw or Almahalla
66%

Winning margin

Asaria wins by 2+
12%
Almahalla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Asaria 1+ goals
62%
Asaria 2+ goals
25%
Asaria 3+ goals
7%
Almahalla 1+ goals
63%
Almahalla 2+ goals
26%
Almahalla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Asaria (draw refunded)
49%
Almahalla (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asaria at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Almahalla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asaria attack 0.89 + Almahalla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Almahalla attack 0.87 + Asaria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Asaria scores more
34%
level
31%
Almahalla scores more
35%

Almahalla at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Almahalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asaria 1–1 Almahalla

Asaria and Almahalla drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 3, 2022.