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Asaria vs Al Malaab El Libby — Premier League 2019

Asaria
Asaria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
1/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Asaria35%
×Draw31%
Al Malaab El Libby34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asaria
1.00
Al Malaab El Libby
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Asaria
0.89
Al Malaab El Libby
0.85

allows per match

Asaria
1.11
Al Malaab El Libby
1.11

finishing

Asaria+0.00on par
Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asaria ↓

Al Malaab El Libby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Asaria or draw
66%
Asaria or Al Malaab El Libby
69%
Draw or Al Malaab El Libby
65%

Winning margin

Asaria wins by 2+
13%
Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Asaria 1+ goals
63%
Asaria 2+ goals
26%
Asaria 3+ goals
8%
Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
62%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
26%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Asaria (draw refunded)
51%
Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asaria at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Al Malaab El Libby away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asaria attack 0.89 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.85 + Asaria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Asaria scores more
35%
level
31%
Al Malaab El Libby scores more
34%

Asaria at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Asaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asaria vs Al Malaab El Libby

Asaria beat Al Malaab El Libby 2-1 in Premier League on January 16, 2025.