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Asaria vs Al-Madina — Premier League 2019

Asaria
Asaria
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Madina
Al-Madina
12/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Asaria39%
×Draw30%
Al-Madina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asaria
1.13
Al-Madina
0.99

Asaria creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 64 away

creates per match

Asaria
0.89
Al-Madina
0.86

allows per match

Asaria
1.11
Al-Madina
1.36

finishing

Asaria+0.00on par
Al-Madina+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asaria ↓

Al-Madina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asaria or draw
68%
Asaria or Al-Madina
70%
Draw or Al-Madina
61%

Winning margin

Asaria wins by 2+
16%
Al-Madina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Asaria 1+ goals
68%
Asaria 2+ goals
31%
Asaria 3+ goals
11%
Al-Madina 1+ goals
63%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
26%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Asaria (draw refunded)
55%
Al-Madina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asaria at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Al-Madina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asaria attack 0.89 + Al-Madina defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al-Madina attack 0.86 + Asaria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Asaria scores more
39%
level
30%
Al-Madina scores more
32%

Asaria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Asaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asaria vs Al-Madina

Al-Madina beat Asaria 2-0 in Premier League on December 2, 2023.