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Asaria vs Al Ahli Tripoli — Premier League 2019

Asaria
Asaria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
2/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Asaria21%
×Draw30%
Al Ahli Tripoli49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asaria
0.68
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.23

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Asaria
0.89
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.35

allows per match

Asaria
1.11
Al Ahli Tripoli
0.46

finishing

Asaria+0.00on par
Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asaria ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Asaria or draw
51%
Asaria or Al Ahli Tripoli
70%
Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli
79%

Winning margin

Asaria wins by 2+
6%
Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Asaria 1+ goals
49%
Asaria 2+ goals
15%
Asaria 3+ goals
3%
Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
35%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Asaria (draw refunded)
29%
Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asaria at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asaria attack 0.89 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.68

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 1.35 + Asaria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Asaria scores more
21%
level
30%
Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
49%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asaria vs Al Ahli Tripoli

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Asaria 2-1 in Premier League on February 12, 2025.