Asaria 1–1 Abu Salim: Result & Stats

Asaria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Abu Salim

1/30/2024

Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Asaria35%

×Draw31%

Abu Salim34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AsariaExpected goals in this matchAbu Salim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.97

Asaria

0.98

Abu Salim

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 61 away

0.89

creates per match

0.82

1.11

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Asaria

0.89

Abu Salim

0.82

allows per match

Asaria

1.11

Abu Salim

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asaria+0.00on par

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asaria ↓

Abu Salim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Asaria or draw

66%

Asaria or Abu Salim

69%

Draw or Abu Salim

65%

Winning margin

Asaria wins by 2+

13%

Abu Salim wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Asaria 1+ goals

62%

Asaria 2+ goals

26%

Asaria 3+ goals

8%

Abu Salim 1+ goals

62%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

25%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Asaria (draw refunded)

50%

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asaria at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asaria attack 0.89 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Asaria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Asaria scores more

35%

level

31%

Abu Salim scores more

34%

Asaria at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Asaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff