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Asante Kotoko vs Vision — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vision
Vision
3/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Asante Kotoko56%
×Draw27%
Vision16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.43
Vision
0.63

Asante Kotoko creates 127% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Vision
0.61

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Vision
1.39

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Vision →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
84%
Asante Kotoko or Vision
73%
Draw or Vision
44%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
29%
Vision wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
76%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
42%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
17%
Vision 1+ goals
47%
Vision 2+ goals
13%
Vision 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
78%
Vision (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Vision away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Vision defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vision attack 0.61 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
56%
level
27%
Vision scores more
16%

Asante Kotoko at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asante Kotoko vs Vision

Asante Kotoko and Vision drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.