Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Asante Kotoko vs Etoile DU Sahel — CAF Champions League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
9/15/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundBaba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Asante Kotoko50%
×Draw31%
Etoile DU Sahel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.20
Etoile DU Sahel
0.64

Asante Kotoko creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.20
Etoile DU Sahel
0.87

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.40
Etoile DU Sahel
1.20

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
80%
Asante Kotoko or Etoile DU Sahel
69%
Draw or Etoile DU Sahel
50%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
22%
Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
70%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
34%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
12%
Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
47%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
14%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
72%
Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.20 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.87 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
50%
level
31%
Etoile DU Sahel scores more
20%

Asante Kotoko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Asante Kotoko 2–0 Etoile DU Sahel

Asante Kotoko beat Etoile DU Sahel 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.