Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Asante Kotoko vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
2 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
E. Gyamfi 50', 29'
D. Korsah-Akoumah 26'
5/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Asante Kotoko56%
×Draw26%
Ebusua Dwarfs18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.48
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.70

Asante Kotoko creates 111% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 29 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.76

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.64
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.48

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
82%
Asante Kotoko or Ebusua Dwarfs
74%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
44%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
29%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
77%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
43%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
19%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
50%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
16%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
76%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.64 · 109 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.76 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
56%
level
26%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
18%

Asante Kotoko at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
D. Korsah-Akoumah
29'
E. Gyamfi
30'
P. Asmah← I. Osman
50'
E. Gyamfi
62'
M. Acquah← M. Acquah
64'
S. Safo-Taylor← S. Safo-Taylor
84'
S. Frimpong← S. Frimpong
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 2–1 Ebusua Dwarfs

Asante Kotoko beat Ebusua Dwarfs 2-1 in Premier League on May 13, 2021.

Goals: D. Korsah-Akoumah (26'), E. Gyamfi (29', 50').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.