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Asante Kotoko vs Al Hilal Omdurman — CAF Champions League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
12/23/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundOhene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Asante Kotoko49%
×Draw32%
Al Hilal Omdurman19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.14
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.59

Asante Kotoko creates 93% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.20
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.78

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.40
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.08

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
81%
Asante Kotoko or Al Hilal Omdurman
68%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
51%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
21%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
68%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
32%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
11%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
45%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
12%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
72%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.20 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 0.78 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
49%
level
32%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
19%

Asante Kotoko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asante Kotoko vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Asante Kotoko 1-0 in CAF Champions League on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.