Åsane W 0–0 TIL 2020: Result & Stats

Åsane W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TIL 2020

7/30/2022

1. Division Women · Round 14Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Åsane W57%

×Draw22%

TIL 202021%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åsane WExpected goals in this matchTIL 2020

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.04

Åsane W

1.88

TIL 2020

1.04

Åsane W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 49 away

2.32

creates per match

1.61

0.48

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Åsane W

2.32

TIL 2020

1.61

allows per match

Åsane W

0.48

TIL 2020

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åsane W+0.00on par

TIL 2020+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane W ↓

TIL 2020 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Åsane W or draw

79%

Åsane W or TIL 2020

78%

Draw or TIL 2020

43%

Winning margin

Åsane W wins by 2+

33%

TIL 2020 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Åsane W 1+ goals

85%

Åsane W 2+ goals

56%

Åsane W 3+ goals

29%

TIL 2020 1+ goals

65%

TIL 2020 2+ goals

28%

TIL 2020 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Åsane W (draw refunded)

73%

TIL 2020 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

TIL 2020 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane W attack 2.32 + TIL 2020 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.88

TIL 2020 attack 1.61 + Åsane W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Åsane W scores more

57%

level

22%

TIL 2020 scores more

21%

Åsane W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff