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Åsane W vs Medkila — 1. Division Women 2022

Åsane W
Åsane W
FT
1 – 0
Medkila
Medkila
4/24/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 5Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åsane W85%
×Draw11%
Medkila4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane W
2.77
Medkila
0.43

Åsane W creates 544% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åsane W
2.32
Medkila
0.38

allows per match

Åsane W
0.48
Medkila
3.23

finishing

Åsane W+0.00on par
Medkila+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane W ↓

Medkila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Åsane W or draw
96%
Åsane W or Medkila
89%
Draw or Medkila
15%

Winning margin

Åsane W wins by 2+
65%
Medkila wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Åsane W 1+ goals
94%
Åsane W 2+ goals
76%
Åsane W 3+ goals
51%
Medkila 1+ goals
35%
Medkila 2+ goals
7%
Medkila 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Åsane W (draw refunded)
96%
Medkila (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Medkila away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane W attack 2.32 + Medkila defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.77

Medkila attack 0.38 + Åsane W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Åsane W scores more
85%
level
11%
Medkila scores more
4%

Åsane W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åsane W vs Medkila

Åsane W beat Medkila 1-0 in 1. Division Women on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Åsane Arena in Bergen.