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Åsane W vs Frigg Oslo FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Åsane W
Åsane W
Preview
11:30
Frigg Oslo FK W
Frigg Oslo FK W
9/13/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 17
87%
Åsane W
model favours
87%11%2%
2–0
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
20%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Åsane W87%
×Draw11%
Frigg Oslo FK W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane W
2.50
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.24

Åsane W creates 942% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Åsane W
2.32
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.00

allows per match

Åsane W
0.48
Frigg Oslo FK W
2.67

finishing

Åsane W+0.00on par
Frigg Oslo FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane W ↓

Frigg Oslo FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–14%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Åsane W or draw
98%
Åsane W or Frigg Oslo FK W
89%
Draw or Frigg Oslo FK W
13%

Winning margin

Åsane W wins by 2+
65%
Frigg Oslo FK W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Åsane W 1+ goals
92%
Åsane W 2+ goals
71%
Åsane W 3+ goals
45%
Frigg Oslo FK W 1+ goals
21%
Frigg Oslo FK W 2+ goals
2%
Frigg Oslo FK W 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Åsane W (draw refunded)
97%
Frigg Oslo FK W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Frigg Oslo FK W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane W attack 2.32 + Frigg Oslo FK W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Frigg Oslo FK W attack 0.00 + Åsane W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Åsane W scores more
87%
level
11%
Frigg Oslo FK W scores more
2%

Åsane W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWWWD
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Åsane W host Frigg Oslo FK W

September 13, 2026: Åsane W take on Frigg Oslo FK W in 1. Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.