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Åsane W vs Fortuna Ålesund — 1. Division Women 2022

Åsane W
Åsane W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fortuna Ålesund
Fortuna Ålesund
8/28/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 18Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Åsane W54%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Ålesund23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane W
1.78
Fortuna Ålesund
1.07

Åsane W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 48 away

creates per match

Åsane W
2.32
Fortuna Ålesund
1.67

allows per match

Åsane W
0.48
Fortuna Ålesund
1.25

finishing

Åsane W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Åsane W or draw
77%
Åsane W or Fortuna Ålesund
77%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund
46%

Winning margin

Åsane W wins by 2+
30%
Fortuna Ålesund wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Åsane W 1+ goals
83%
Åsane W 2+ goals
53%
Åsane W 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Ålesund 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Ålesund 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Ålesund 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Åsane W (draw refunded)
70%
Fortuna Ålesund (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Fortuna Ålesund away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane W attack 2.32 + Fortuna Ålesund defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.78

Fortuna Ålesund attack 1.67 + Åsane W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Åsane W scores more
54%
level
23%
Fortuna Ålesund scores more
23%

Åsane W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Åsane W 4–0 Fortuna Ålesund

Åsane W beat Fortuna Ålesund 4-0 in 1. Division Women on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Åsane Arena in Bergen.