Asane 3–3 Lysekloster: Result & Stats

Asane

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Lysekloster

Unknown 73', 14', 3'

Unknown 80', 60' (pen), 50'

2/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Asane42%

×Draw22%

Lysekloster36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AsaneExpected goals in this matchLysekloster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.69

Asane

1.86

Lysekloster

1.69

Asane creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.85

creates per match

1.75

1.62

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Asane

1.85

Lysekloster

1.75

allows per match

Asane

1.62

Lysekloster

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asane+0.00on par

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asane ↓

Lysekloster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Asane or draw

64%

Asane or Lysekloster

78%

Draw or Lysekloster

58%

Winning margin

Asane wins by 2+

23%

Lysekloster wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Asane 1+ goals

84%

Asane 2+ goals

55%

Asane 3+ goals

28%

Lysekloster 1+ goals

82%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

50%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Asane (draw refunded)

54%

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asane at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asane attack 1.85 + Lysekloster defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lysekloster attack 1.75 + Asane defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Asane scores more

42%

level

22%

Lysekloster scores more

36%

Asane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Asane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

14'

50'

60'

Penalty

73'

80'

Asane

Lysekloster

Manager: Eirik Bakke

Manager: Tommy Knarvik