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Asane vs jerv — 1. Division 2018

Asane
Asane
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
jerv
jerv
4/16/20231. Division1. Division · Round 2Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Asane47%
×Draw22%
jerv31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asane
1.88
jerv
1.48

Asane creates 27% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 75 away

creates per match

Asane
1.66
jerv
1.24

allows per match

Asane
1.73
jerv
2.09

finishing

Asane+0.00on par
jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asane ↓

jerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Asane or draw
69%
Asane or jerv
78%
Draw or jerv
53%

Winning margin

Asane wins by 2+
26%
jerv wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Asane 1+ goals
85%
Asane 2+ goals
56%
Asane 3+ goals
29%
jerv 1+ goals
77%
jerv 2+ goals
43%
jerv 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Asane (draw refunded)
61%
jerv (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asane at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.73 · 113 matches

jerv away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asane attack 1.66 + jerv defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

jerv attack 1.24 + Asane defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Asane scores more
47%
level
22%
jerv scores more
31%

Asane at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Asane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Asane 1–2 jerv

jerv beat Asane 2-1 in 1. Division on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Åsane Arena in Bergen.