Asan Mugunghwa 3–1 Cheongju: Result & Stats

Asan Mugunghwa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cheongju

4/6/2025

K League 2 · Round 6Yishunsin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Asan Mugunghwa41%

×Draw28%

Cheongju32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asan MugunghwaExpected goals in this matchCheongju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.10

Asan Mugunghwa

1.29

Cheongju

1.10

Asan Mugunghwa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 63 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

1.15

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Asan Mugunghwa

1.31

Cheongju

1.06

allows per match

Asan Mugunghwa

1.15

Cheongju

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par

Cheongju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asan Mugunghwa ↓

Cheongju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Asan Mugunghwa or draw

68%

Asan Mugunghwa or Cheongju

72%

Draw or Cheongju

59%

Winning margin

Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+

18%

Cheongju wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals

72%

Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals

37%

Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals

14%

Cheongju 1+ goals

67%

Cheongju 2+ goals

30%

Cheongju 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)

56%

Cheongju (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asan Mugunghwa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 153 matches

Cheongju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.27 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.31 + Cheongju defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cheongju attack 1.06 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Asan Mugunghwa scores more

41%

level

28%

Cheongju scores more

32%

Asan Mugunghwa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Asan Mugunghwa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff