ASA 2–4 Sergipe: Result & Stats | Serie D

ASA

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Sergipe

André Beleza 76' (pen)

Caique 19'

Marcos 52'

William Paulista 42'

Heverton 35'

Claudio Bahiano 27'

5/27/2018

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca, Alagoas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ASA44%

×Draw28%

Sergipe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASAExpected goals in this matchSergipe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

ASA

1.31

Sergipe

1.00

ASA creates 31% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 51 away

1.38

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

ASA

1.38

Sergipe

1.10

allows per match

ASA

0.89

Sergipe

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASA+0.00on par

Sergipe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Sergipe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ASA or draw

72%

ASA or Sergipe

72%

Draw or Sergipe

56%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+

20%

Sergipe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals

73%

ASA 2+ goals

38%

ASA 3+ goals

14%

Sergipe 1+ goals

63%

Sergipe 2+ goals

26%

Sergipe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)

61%

Sergipe (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Sergipe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.38 + Sergipe defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sergipe attack 1.10 + ASA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASA scores more

44%

level

28%

Sergipe scores more

28%

ASA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

27'

35'

42'

46'

André Nunes← Lucas Bahia

52'

Marcos

60'

Nino Guerreiro← Obina

66'

Coutinho← Misael

66'

Wesley← Peixoto

74'

Lulinha← Danilo Rios

76'

André BelezaPenalty

82'

Fabinho Cambalhota← Marcos

ASA

Sergipe

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Rabelo

46'▲André Nunes←▼Lucas Bahia

66'▲Coutinho←▼Misael

66'▲Wesley←▼Peixoto

ASA substitutes

NunesCoutinhoWesleyDidaJulianoArcanjoOsvaldirChristopher

Manager: Edmilson

60'▲Nino Guerreiro←▼Obina

74'▲Lulinha←▼Danilo Rios

82'▲Fabinho Cambalhota←▼Marcos

Sergipe substitutes

GuerreiroLulinhaCambalhotaBastosRodneySandroWesley

ASA 2 – 4 Sergipe

Sergipe beat ASA 4-2 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

Goals: Caique (19'), Claudio Bahiano (27'), Heverton (35'), William Paulista (42'), Marcos (52'), André Beleza (76' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca, Alagoas).

ASA vs Sergipe — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

ASA 2 – 4 Sergipe