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ASA vs Lagarto — Serie D 2026

ASA
ASA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lagarto
Lagarto
Will 23'
6/28/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ASA45%
×Draw29%
Lagarto26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
1.27
Lagarto
0.88

ASA creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

creates per match

ASA
1.38
Lagarto
0.87

allows per match

ASA
0.89
Lagarto
1.17

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Lagarto+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Lagarto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ASA or draw
74%
ASA or Lagarto
71%
Draw or Lagarto
55%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
21%
Lagarto wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
72%
ASA 2+ goals
36%
ASA 3+ goals
14%
Lagarto 1+ goals
59%
Lagarto 2+ goals
22%
Lagarto 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
64%
Lagarto (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Lagarto away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.38 + Lagarto defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lagarto attack 0.87 + ASA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASA scores more
45%
level
29%
Lagarto scores more
26%

ASA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Will
ASA
Lagarto
Ranielle Ribeiro
Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro
Alan Dotti
Manager: Alan Dotti

ASA 1 – 0 Lagarto

ASA beat Lagarto 1-0 in Serie D on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Will (23').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca in Arapiraca.