ASA 3–3 Central SC: Result & Stats | Serie D

ASA

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Central SC

Chiquinho Santos 89', 77'

André Beleza 36' (pen)

Leandro Costa 63' (pen)

Danilo Quipapa 55'

Douglas Washington 42'

5/6/2018

Serie D · Round 3Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca, Alagoas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

ASA43%

×Draw30%

Central SC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASAExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.86

ASA

1.17

Central SC

0.86

ASA creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 37 away

1.38

creates per match

0.84

0.89

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

ASA

1.38

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

ASA

0.89

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASA+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ASA or draw

73%

ASA or Central SC

70%

Draw or Central SC

57%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+

18%

Central SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals

69%

ASA 2+ goals

33%

ASA 3+ goals

11%

Central SC 1+ goals

58%

Central SC 2+ goals

21%

Central SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)

61%

Central SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.38 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Central SC attack 0.84 + ASA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASA scores more

43%

level

30%

Central SC scores more

27%

ASA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

André BelezaPenalty

42'

Douglas Washington

46'

Chiquinho Santos← Lucas Bahia

46'

Wesley← Juninho Arcanjo

46'

Douglas Carioca← Eduardo Eré

46'

Vinícius Paquetá← Anderson Costa

55'

Danilo Quipapa

63'

Leandro CostaPenalty

67'

Jean Carlos← Osvaldir

75'

Júnior Lemos← Douglas Washington

77'

Chiquinho Santos

89'

Chiquinho Santos

ASA

Central

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Carlos Rabelo

46'▲Chiquinho Santos←▼Lucas Bahia

46'▲Wesley←▼Juninho Arcanjo

67'▲Jean Carlos←▼Osvaldir

ASA substitutes

SantosWesleyCarlosDidaNunesCaiqueCoutinhoMisaelRômuloCardosoIsaias

Manager: Mauro Fernandes

46'▲Douglas Carioca←▼Eduardo Eré

46'▲Vinícius Paquetá←▼Anderson Costa

75'▲Júnior Lemos←▼Douglas Washington

Central SC substitutes

CariocaPaquetáLemosDenisonOliveiraGildoIdevamIksonLucianoFernandoTadeuFernando

Match Recap: ASA vs Central SC

ASA and Central SC drew 3-3 in Serie D on May 6, 2018.

Goals: André Beleza (36' pen), Douglas Washington (42'), Danilo Quipapa (55'), Leandro Costa (63' pen), Chiquinho Santos (77', 89').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca, Alagoas).

ASA vs Central SC — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ASA vs Central SC