ASA Targu Mures 1–4 Metalul Buzău: Result & Stats

ASA Targu Mures

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Metalul Buzău

C. Magerusan 90'

A. Moldovan 70', 53'

V. Dumitrache 24'

R. Milea 13'

4/4/2026

Liga II · Relegation Group - 2Stadionul Trans-Sil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ASA Targu Mures52%

×Draw23%

Metalul Buzău24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASA Targu MuresExpected goals in this matchMetalul Buzău

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.12

ASA Targu Mures

1.77

Metalul Buzău

1.12

ASA Targu Mures creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

2.20

creates per match

1.44

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

ASA Targu Mures

2.20

Metalul Buzău

1.44

allows per match

ASA Targu Mures

0.80

Metalul Buzău

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASA Targu Mures+0.00on par

Metalul Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA Targu Mures ↓

Metalul Buzău →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ASA Targu Mures or draw

76%

ASA Targu Mures or Metalul Buzău

77%

Draw or Metalul Buzău

48%

Winning margin

ASA Targu Mures wins by 2+

29%

Metalul Buzău wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ASA Targu Mures 1+ goals

83%

ASA Targu Mures 2+ goals

53%

ASA Targu Mures 3+ goals

26%

Metalul Buzău 1+ goals

67%

Metalul Buzău 2+ goals

31%

Metalul Buzău 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ASA Targu Mures (draw refunded)

69%

Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA Targu Mures at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Metalul Buzău away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA Targu Mures attack 2.20 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Metalul Buzău attack 1.44 + ASA Targu Mures defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASA Targu Mures scores more

52%

level

23%

Metalul Buzău scores more

24%

ASA Targu Mures at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASA Targu Mures will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

R. Milea

24'

V. Dumitrache

45+2'

53'

A. Moldovan

55'

70'

A. Moldovan

90'

C. Magerusan

ASA

Metalul

25

27

26

5

19

99

10

20

⚽

Milea

97

Nica

9

⚽

Dumitrach

11

⚽2

1

19

4

30

11

51

20

37

7

9

99

⚽

Magerusan

ASA Targu Mures substitutes

93Iacob2Horsia23Cruceru28Filip13Dohatca17Birnoi5Bejan55Vinau15Avram77Trif

Manager: Valentin Stan

Metalul Buzău substitutes

23Stoian2Juncanaru3Cimpoesu7Dumitru8Oprea14Puiu80Stancovici98Tudor77Oancea

Liga II: ASA Targu Mures 1–4 Metalul Buzău

Metalul Buzău beat ASA Targu Mures 4-1 in Liga II on April 4, 2026.

Goals: R. Milea (13'), V. Dumitrache (24'), A. Moldovan (53', 70'), C. Magerusan (90').

The match was played at Stadionul Trans-Sil.

ASA Targu Mures vs Metalul Buzău — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga II: ASA Targu Mures 1–4 Metalul Buzău