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AS Soliman vs AS Gabes — Cup 2019

AS Soliman
AS Soliman
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AS Gabes
AS Gabesadvanced
M. A. Helal 120+1' (OG)
O. Naffati 107'
4/21/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade de Soliman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AS Soliman31%
×Draw28%
AS Gabes41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Soliman
1.08
AS Gabes
1.29

AS Gabes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

AS Soliman
1.00
AS Gabes
0.83

allows per match

AS Soliman
1.75
AS Gabes
1.17

finishing

AS Soliman+0.00on par
AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Soliman ↓

AS Gabes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS Soliman or draw
59%
AS Soliman or AS Gabes
72%
Draw or AS Gabes
69%

Winning margin

AS Soliman wins by 2+
12%
AS Gabes wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AS Soliman 1+ goals
66%
AS Soliman 2+ goals
29%
AS Soliman 3+ goals
10%
AS Gabes 1+ goals
72%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
37%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AS Soliman (draw refunded)
43%
AS Gabes (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Soliman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Soliman attack 1.00 + AS Gabes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

AS Gabes attack 0.83 + AS Soliman defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Soliman scores more
31%
level
28%
AS Gabes scores more
41%

AS Gabes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

107'
O. Naffati
120+1'
M. A. HelalOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: AS Soliman 0–2 AS Gabes

AS Gabes beat AS Soliman 2-0 in Cup on April 21, 2024.

Goals: O. Naffati (107'), M. A. Helal (120+1' o.g.).

The match was played at Stade de Soliman in Sulayman.