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AS Sobemap vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
FT
2 – 0
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
10/27/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 3Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

AS Sobemap48%
×Draw32%
Réal Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Sobemap
1.13
Réal Sport
0.61

AS Sobemap creates 85% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 82 away

creates per match

AS Sobemap
1.09
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

AS Sobemap
0.76
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

AS Sobemap+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Sobemap ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

AS Sobemap or draw
80%
AS Sobemap or Réal Sport
68%
Draw or Réal Sport
52%

Winning margin

AS Sobemap wins by 2+
21%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS Sobemap 1+ goals
68%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
31%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
11%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
46%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
13%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
71%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Sobemap at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.76 · 111 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Sobemap attack 1.09 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + AS Sobemap defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AS Sobemap scores more
48%
level
32%
Réal Sport scores more
20%

AS Sobemap at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Sobemap 2–0 Réal Sport

AS Sobemap beat Réal Sport 2-0 in Championnat National on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.