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AS Sobemap vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
11/20/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 8Stade Municipal d'Avrankou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

AS Sobemap50%
×Draw31%
Etoile Filante20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Sobemap
1.20
Etoile Filante
0.64

AS Sobemap creates 88% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 29 away

creates per match

AS Sobemap
1.09
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

AS Sobemap
0.76
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

AS Sobemap+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Sobemap ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Sobemap or draw
80%
AS Sobemap or Etoile Filante
69%
Draw or Etoile Filante
50%

Winning margin

AS Sobemap wins by 2+
22%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS Sobemap 1+ goals
70%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
34%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
12%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
47%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
14%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
72%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Sobemap at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.76 · 112 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Sobemap attack 1.09 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + AS Sobemap defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Sobemap scores more
50%
level
31%
Etoile Filante scores more
20%

AS Sobemap at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Sobemap 1–0 Etoile Filante

AS Sobemap beat Etoile Filante 1-0 in Championnat National on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Avrankou in Avrankou.