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AS Salé vs Stade Marocain — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
0 – 0
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
2/14/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

AS Salé40%
×Draw30%
Stade Marocain30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.16
Stade Marocain
0.97

AS Salé creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Stade Marocain
0.81

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Stade Marocain
1.20

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
70%
AS Salé or Stade Marocain
70%
Draw or Stade Marocain
60%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
17%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
69%
AS Salé 2+ goals
32%
AS Salé 3+ goals
11%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
62%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
25%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
57%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AS Salé scores more
40%
level
30%
Stade Marocain scores more
30%

AS Salé at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Salé vs Stade Marocain

AS Salé and Stade Marocain drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.