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AS Salé vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
4/1/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS Salé38%
×Draw30%
Rapide Oued ZEM33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.12
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.02

AS Salé creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 45 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.91

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.13

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
67%
AS Salé or Rapide Oued ZEM
70%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
62%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
15%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
67%
AS Salé 2+ goals
31%
AS Salé 3+ goals
10%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
64%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
27%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
54%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Salé scores more
38%
level
30%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
33%

AS Salé at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 3–0 Rapide Oued ZEM

AS Salé beat Rapide Oued ZEM 3-0 in Botola 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.