Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AS Salé vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
1/29/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AS Salé32%
×Draw30%
Moghreb Tetouan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.01
Moghreb Tetouan
1.13

Moghreb Tetouan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Moghreb Tetouan
1.13

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Moghreb Tetouan
0.90

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
62%
AS Salé or Moghreb Tetouan
70%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
68%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
12%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
64%
AS Salé 2+ goals
27%
AS Salé 3+ goals
8%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
68%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
31%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
46%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.13 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Salé scores more
32%
level
30%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
38%

Moghreb Tetouan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 0–2 Moghreb Tetouan

Moghreb Tetouan beat AS Salé 2-0 in Botola 2 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.