AS Salé 1–2 Maghreb Fès: Result & Stats | Botola 2

AS Salé

FT

1 – 2

Maghreb Fès

3/16/2019

Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AS Salé36%

×Draw29%

Maghreb Fès34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS SaléExpected goals in this matchMaghreb Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.08

AS Salé

1.12

Maghreb Fès

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

1.11

creates per match

1.03

1.12

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

AS Salé

1.11

Maghreb Fès

1.03

allows per match

AS Salé

1.12

Maghreb Fès

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Maghreb Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw

66%

AS Salé or Maghreb Fès

71%

Draw or Maghreb Fès

64%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+

15%

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals

67%

AS Salé 2+ goals

31%

AS Salé 3+ goals

10%

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

66%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

29%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)

51%

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Maghreb Fès attack 1.03 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AS Salé scores more

36%

level

29%

Maghreb Fès scores more

34%

AS Salé at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff