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AS Salé vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
0 – 0
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
9/14/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

AS Salé39%
×Draw29%
KAC Kenitra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.18
KAC Kenitra
1.03

AS Salé creates 15% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
KAC Kenitra
1.25

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
68%
AS Salé or KAC Kenitra
71%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
61%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
17%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
69%
AS Salé 2+ goals
33%
AS Salé 3+ goals
12%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
64%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
28%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
55%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Salé scores more
39%
level
29%
KAC Kenitra scores more
32%

AS Salé at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 0–0 KAC Kenitra

AS Salé and KAC Kenitra drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.